ECO 6214 : Module 2, Assignment 2: Forecasting ...

Introduction

This assignment will test your knowledge of basic statistical concepts, the components of time series data, and using a correlogram for model selection.

Instructions

Submit your answers to all questions in a Word document. Download the data sets and use Excel to solve the problems.

Question 1. Thirty graduate students were asked how many credit hours they were taking in the current quarter. Download the available dataDownload Download the available data

1. Calculate the mean, median, standard deviation, variance, and range for this sample using Excel. Write a sentence explaining what each measure means.
2. What is the standard error of the mean based on the data?
3. What would be the best point estimate for the population credit hours? (“Population” refers to all graduate students’ credit hours in the universe.)
4. What is the 95% confidence interval for the means of credit hours? What is the 90% confidence interval?

Question 2. An investment manager has been working on a report for forecasting Apple stock price. Your job is to help him to determine whether there is a trend and/or seasonality in Apple stock prices. Download the dataDownload Download the data

1. Prepare a time series plot of these data.
2. Include a trend line using the Excel Analysis ToolPak. On the basis of your analysis, do you think there is a significant trend in Apple stock prices? Explain.

Watch the following video to learn how to add a trendline:

Watch the video: How to Add a TrendlineLinks to an external site. 

1. Is there seasonality? Explain.
2. What forecasting method might be appropriate for Apple stock prices according to the guidelines provided in your Table 2.1 (Chapter 2, page 58) of your textbook?

Question 3. The given figure is the correlogram for the total number of houses in the U.S. (quarterly data).

On the basis of the correlogram, do you think there is a significant trend? Explain.

Submission

• Submit your answers in a Word document.
• Submit the Excel files to show your calculations.
• Include the relevant graphs of actual and forecast values of the series. Please do not forget to title your graph.

Submit your calculations and answers in a 1–3-page document and spreadsheet to the Dropbox by Day 7 of this week.